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丹麦水貂养殖场浆细胞瘤持续存在空间聚集现象。

Persistent spatial clusters of plasmacytosis among Danish mink farms.

机构信息

Veterinary Epidemiology, Department of Large Animal Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Grønnegaardsvej 8, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.

出版信息

Prev Vet Med. 2011 Oct 1;102(1):75-82. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.003. Epub 2011 Jul 23.

Abstract

Aleutian disease (Plasmacytosis) is caused by the Aleutian mink disease virus (AMDV), an autonomous parvovirus and affects many mustelid species, including the American mink (Neovisonvison). In Denmark, an eradication program reduced the prevalence of test-positive farms from 100% in 1976 to 15% in 1996. Nevertheless, the disease persists in the Vendsyssel district of Northern Jutland, despite the eradication efforts. In this study, we used spatial epidemiological analysis to test for spatial autocorrelation of the distribution of farms positive for the disease. We investigated 2375 farms in Denmark (342 of which were located in the Vendsyssel district), during the period 2000-2008. For the purpose of our study, a farm was considered positive when, on any test conducted in a year, at least three animals were tested positive. To detect spatial clusters, we performed a retrospective analysis with spatial scan statistics. We performed one analysis for each of the nine years (2000-2008). A separate analysis was conducted with only the farms in Vendsyssel included. The spatial cluster analysis revealed a significant cluster throughout the time period studied in Northern Jutland. The only exception was 2002 when an outbreak was detected in the southern part of Jutland, and not in the north. The farm-level prevalence of the disease in Denmark was highest in this year, suggesting that the outbreak in the south could have masked the persistent signal from the north; the northern cluster was still significant when analysing only the Vendsyssel populations. These results confirm that Northern Jutland continues to have a significantly higher number of cases than expected if the disease was randomly distributed.

摘要

阿留申病(浆细胞瘤)由阿留申貂病病毒(AMDV)引起,这是一种自主细小病毒,会影响许多鼬科物种,包括美洲水貂(Neovisonvison)。在丹麦,一项根除计划使阳性农场的流行率从 1976 年的 100%降低到 1996 年的 15%。尽管采取了根除措施,但该疾病仍在北日德兰的文茨塞尔地区持续存在。在这项研究中,我们使用空间流行病学分析来检验疾病阳性农场分布的空间自相关。我们调查了丹麦的 2375 个农场(其中 342 个位于文茨塞尔地区),调查时间为 2000 年至 2008 年。为了进行本研究,只要在一年中的任何一次检测中,至少有三只动物检测呈阳性,就认为农场呈阳性。为了检测空间聚类,我们使用空间扫描统计数据进行了回顾性分析。我们对 2000 年至 2008 年的每一年都进行了一次分析。仅对文茨塞尔的农场进行了单独的分析。空间聚类分析显示,在整个研究期间,北日德兰都存在一个显著的聚类。唯一的例外是 2002 年,当时在日德兰南部发现了一次疫情,而不是在北部。在这一年,丹麦的疾病在农场层面上的流行率最高,这表明南部的疫情可能掩盖了来自北部的持续信号;当仅分析文茨塞尔的种群时,北部的聚类仍然显著。这些结果证实,北日德兰的病例数量继续明显高于随机分布情况下的预期数量。

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