Anderson R M, Gupta S, Ng W
Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, Imperial College, London University, U.K.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr (1988). 1990;3(4):417-29.
The paper provides a brief review of the significance of heterogeneity in sexual behaviour to the transmission dynamics of HIV and the spread of AIDS. It addresses the formulation of mathematical models to encapsulate variability in the rate of sexual partner change, the structure of networks of sexual partner contact, and age dependency in sexual activity. A particular focus is the significance of high or low preference (or choice) of sexual partners from an individual's own sexual activity class (defined on the basis of partner change rate or other criteria). Numerical studies of model behaviour reveal that a high degree of assortativeness (high level of "like with like" mixing) results in a more rapid initial spread of HIV, a smaller overall epidemic, and the possibility of a multipeak or long and drawn out epidemic, by comparison with those induced by high degrees of disassortativeness (low level of "like with like" mixing) in sexual contact patterns. The structure of a sexual network is shown to be a major determinant of the temporal pattern and magnitude of an epidemic. The demographic impact of HIV in developing countries is also examined in the context of choice matrices based on age as well as sexual activity. The potential demographic impact of AIDS is shown to be enhanced by age dependency in levels of activity (high in the young and lower in older age classes), a male preference for females of younger age, and a higher efficiency of HIV transmission from male to female than vice versa. The paper ends with a discussion of the need for better quantitative data on sexual behaviour.
本文简要回顾了性行为异质性对艾滋病毒传播动态和艾滋病蔓延的重要性。它探讨了数学模型的构建,以概括性伴侣更换率的变化、性伴侣接触网络的结构以及性活动中的年龄依赖性。特别关注的是,从个体自身的性活动类别(根据伴侣更换率或其他标准定义)中对性伴侣的高或低偏好(或选择)的重要性。模型行为的数值研究表明,与性接触模式中高度非匹配性(低水平的“同类相聚”混合)相比,高度匹配性(高水平的“同类相聚”混合)会导致艾滋病毒更快地初步传播、总体疫情规模更小,以及出现多峰或长期且持续的疫情的可能性。性网络的结构被证明是疫情时间模式和规模的主要决定因素。还在基于年龄以及性活动的选择矩阵背景下,研究了艾滋病毒在发展中国家的人口统计学影响。研究表明,活动水平的年龄依赖性(年轻人中高,老年人中低)、男性对年轻女性的偏好以及艾滋病毒从男性传播到女性的效率高于从女性传播到男性,这些因素会增强艾滋病潜在的人口统计学影响。本文最后讨论了获取更好的性行为定量数据的必要性。