Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 Aug;85(2):303-8. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.11-0181.
Phytoplankton abundance is inversely related to sea surface temperature (SST). However, a positive relationship is observed between SST and phytoplankton abundance in coastal waters of Bay of Bengal. This has led to an assertion that in a warming climate, rise in SST may increase phytoplankton blooms and, therefore, cholera outbreaks. Here, we explain why a positive SST-phytoplankton relationship exists in the Bay of Bengal and the implications of such a relationship on cholera dynamics. We found clear evidence of two independent physical drivers for phytoplankton abundance. The first one is the widely accepted phytoplankton blooming produced by the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich deep ocean waters. The second, which explains the Bay of Bengal findings, is coastal phytoplankton blooming during high river discharges with terrestrial nutrients. Causal mechanisms should be understood when associating SST with phytoplankton and subsequent cholera outbreaks in regions where freshwater discharge are a predominant mechanism for phytoplankton production.
浮游植物丰度与海面温度（SST）呈负相关。然而，在孟加拉湾的沿海水域，SST 与浮游植物丰度之间存在正相关关系。这导致了一种断言，即在气候变暖的情况下，SST 的上升可能会增加浮游植物的爆发，从而导致霍乱的爆发。在这里，我们解释了为什么在孟加拉湾会存在 SST-浮游植物的正相关关系，以及这种关系对霍乱动态的影响。我们发现了两个独立的浮游植物丰度的物理驱动因素的明确证据。第一个是被广泛接受的浮游植物大量繁殖，是由冷的、富含营养的深海海水上涌引起的。第二个解释了孟加拉湾的发现，是在河流高径流量期间，陆地营养物质导致的沿海浮游植物大量繁殖。当在淡水排放是浮游植物产生的主要机制的地区，将 SST 与浮游植物及其随后的霍乱爆发联系起来时，应该理解因果机制。
