ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2011 Sep 27;366(1578):2693-702. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2011.0105.
Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.
目前的濒危水平和物种及栖息地的历史趋势是指导全球保护工作的主要标准。由于缺乏适当的数据和模型,对未来衰退的估计(这些估计可能表明与过去衰退不同的优先事项)一直受到限制。鉴于保护工作很大程度上是为了预测和应对未来的威胁,我们无法在全球范围内展望未来,这一直是采取有效行动的主要制约因素。在这里,我们评估了在目前范围内,陆地哺乳动物适宜栖息地的未来变化的地理和范围。我们使用了一个全球地球系统模型(IMAGE),结合了精细的栖息地适宜性模型,并根据人类发展的四个全球情景进行了参数化。我们确定了每个情景下到 2050 年受影响最严重的国家,假设除了情景中描述的那些保护行动之外,不会采取其他额外的保护行动。我们发现,除了一些例外,大多数预计哺乳动物适宜栖息地损失最大的国家都在非洲和美洲。非洲和北美国家也预计将拥有最多的物种,其全球比例下降幅度较大。我们确定为未来陆地哺乳动物损失热点的大多数国家与当前全球保护重点几乎没有重叠,因此证实了在保护重点制定中进行前瞻性分析的必要性。未来哺乳动物损失热点地区的人口增长和消费预计将增长,这意味着保护区等地方保护行动可能不足以减轻损失。需要采取其他政策,针对生物多样性丧失的根本原因,不仅在非洲,而且在世界其他地区。