Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne , Biophore Building, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2011 Sep 27;366(1578):2681-92. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2011.0121.
The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.
地中海盆地被认为是生物多样性的热点地区，其天然生态系统长期受到人类活动的影响，也是将面临广泛气候变化的地区之一。对于 181 种陆地哺乳动物（占所有地中海哺乳动物的 68%），我们采用集成预测方法，根据两个气候情景的五个气候变化模型输出，来模拟未来（约 2100 年）气候变化下的潜在分布情况。总体而言，大量的地中海哺乳动物将受到未来气候变化的严重威胁，特别是地方性物种。此外，我们发现由于气候变化，潜在物种丰富度会发生重要变化，一些地区（例如意大利中部的山区）会获得物种，而该地区的大部分地区将失去物种（主要是西班牙和北非）。现有的保护区（PA）可能会受到气候变化的强烈影响，非洲、中东和西班牙的大多数 PA 将失去大量物种，而获得物种的 PA（例如意大利中部和法国南部）的物种组成将发生重大变化。
