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运用动态规划估计奶牛不同类型临床乳腺炎的成本和管理。

The cost and management of different types of clinical mastitis in dairy cows estimated by dynamic programming.

机构信息

Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2011 Sep;94(9):4476-87. doi: 10.3168/jds.2010-4123.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of 3 different types of clinical mastitis (CM) (caused by gram-positive bacteria, gram-negative bacteria, and other organisms) at the individual cow level and thereby identify the economically optimal management decision for each type of mastitis. We made modifications to an existing dynamic optimization and simulation model, studying the effects of various factors (incidence of CM, milk loss, pregnancy rate, and treatment cost) on the cost of different types of CM. The average costs per case (US$) of gram-positive, gram-negative, and other CM were $133.73, $211.03, and $95.31, respectively. This model provided a more informed decision-making process in CM management for optimal economic profitability and determined that 93.1% of gram-positive CM cases, 93.1% of gram-negative CM cases, and 94.6% of other CM cases should be treated. The main contributor to the total cost per case was treatment cost for gram-positive CM (51.5% of the total cost per case), milk loss for gram-negative CM (72.4%), and treatment cost for other CM (49.2%). The model affords versatility as it allows for parameters such as production costs, economic values, and disease frequencies to be altered. Therefore, cost estimates are the direct outcome of the farm-specific parameters entered into the model. Thus, this model can provide farmers economically optimal guidelines specific to their individual cows suffering from different types of CM.

摘要

本研究旨在估算 3 种不同类型的临床乳腺炎(CM)(由革兰氏阳性菌、革兰氏阴性菌和其他病原体引起)的个体牛水平成本,从而为每种类型的乳腺炎确定经济上最佳的管理决策。我们对现有的动态优化和模拟模型进行了修改,研究了各种因素(CM 的发病率、产奶量损失、妊娠率和治疗成本)对不同类型 CM 成本的影响。革兰氏阳性、革兰氏阴性和其他 CM 的平均每例成本(美元)分别为 133.73 美元、211.03 美元和 95.31 美元。该模型为 CM 管理提供了更明智的决策过程,以实现最佳经济效益,并确定 93.1%的革兰氏阳性 CM 病例、93.1%的革兰氏阴性 CM 病例和 94.6%的其他 CM 病例应接受治疗。每例总成本的主要贡献者是革兰氏阳性 CM 的治疗成本(占每例总成本的 51.5%)、革兰氏阴性 CM 的产奶量损失(72.4%)和其他 CM 的治疗成本(49.2%)。该模型具有多功能性,因为它允许更改生产成本、经济价值和疾病频率等参数。因此,成本估算直接取决于模型中输入的农场特定参数。因此,该模型可以为患有不同类型 CM 的个体牛提供符合其经济利益的最佳指南。

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