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采用动态规划法估算的奶牛普通临床型乳腺炎的成本。

The cost of generic clinical mastitis in dairy cows as estimated by using dynamic programming.

作者信息

Bar D, Tauer L W, Bennett G, González R N, Hertl J A, Schukken Y H, Schulte H F, Welcome F L, Gröhn Y T

机构信息

Section of Epidemiology, Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2008 Jun;91(6):2205-14. doi: 10.3168/jds.2007-0573.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of generic clinical mastitis (CM) in high-yielding dairy cows given optimal decisions concerning handling of CM cases. A specially structured optimization and simulation model that included a detailed representation of repeated episodes of CM was used to study the effects of various factors on the cost of CM. The basic scenario was based on data from 5 large herds in New York State. In the basic scenario, 92% of the CM cases were recommended to be treated. The average cost of CM per cow and year in these herds was $71. The average cost of a CM case was $179. It was composed of $115 because of milk yield losses, $14 because of increased mortality, and $50 because of treatment-associated costs. The estimated cost of CM was highly dependent on cow traits: it was highest ($403) in cows with high expected future net returns (e.g., young, high-milk-yielding cows), and was lowest ($3) in cows that were recommended to be culled for reasons other than mastitis. The cost per case of CM was 18% higher with a 20% increase in milk price and 17% lower with a 20% decrease in milk price. The cost per case of CM was affected little by a 20% change in replacement cost or pregnancy rate. Changes in CM incidence, however, resulted from changes in these factors, thus affecting whole-farm profitability. The detailed results obtained from this insemination and replacement optimization model can assist farmers in making CM treatment decisions.

摘要

本研究的目的是在对临床型乳房炎(CM)病例处理做出最优决策的情况下,估算高产奶牛患普通型CM的成本。使用一个特别构建的优化与模拟模型(该模型详细呈现了CM的反复发病情况)来研究各种因素对CM成本的影响。基本情景基于纽约州5个大型牛群的数据。在基本情景中,92%的CM病例被建议进行治疗。这些牛群中每头奶牛每年CM的平均成本为71美元。一个CM病例的平均成本为179美元。它由因产奶量损失导致的115美元、因死亡率增加导致的14美元以及因治疗相关成本导致的50美元组成。CM的估计成本高度依赖于奶牛的性状:在未来预期净回报高的奶牛(如年轻、高产奶牛)中成本最高(403美元),而因乳房炎以外原因被建议淘汰的奶牛成本最低(3美元)。牛奶价格上涨20%时,每个CM病例的成本高出18%;牛奶价格下降20%时,每个CM病例的成本降低17%。替换成本或受孕率变化20%对每个CM病例的成本影响不大。然而,这些因素的变化会导致CM发病率的变化,从而影响整个农场的盈利能力。从这个授精与替换优化模型获得的详细结果可以帮助奶农做出CM治疗决策。

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