Evaluation of smallpox vaccination policy.

During 1978 and 1979 the Global Commission for the Certification of Smallpox Eradication will proceed with verification of smallpox eradication in 31 countries. If current surveillance activities do not discover any further cases before the end of 1979, the world will be declared smallpox free. However, the recent occurrence of two laboratory associated smallpox cases in Birmingham, England, revealed that the stocks of variola virus held in at least 12 laboratories in the world pose a real danger to the achievement of smallpox eradication and efforts are being made to reduce the number of laboratories retaining the virus to not more than 4-all WHO collaborating centres-by 1980. Scientific data indicate the unlikelihood of smallpox recurring once it has been eradicated from the human population, although further confirmatory studies are continuing. If the Global Commission verifies the eradication of smallpox, continuation of smallpox vaccination will be unjustifiable in view of its severe complications, however infrequent, and the expected global savings that would result from the termination of vaccination programmes.