Dipartimento Neuroscienze, Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Ospedali Riuniti di Salerno U.O.S.D. Malattie Demielinizzanti, Via s. Leonardo, 84100 Salerno, Italy.
Neurol Sci. 2012 Oct;33(5):999-1003. doi: 10.1007/s10072-011-0873-0. Epub 2011 Dec 6.
Previous papers show different patterns of seasonal distribution of multiple sclerosis attacks. This paper compares long-time modifications. Salerno MS registry (Southern Italy), was reviewed, including 189 patients, age onset 12-51 years (mean = 29.88, SD = 8.4), disease duration mean = 6.94 years (1-29), attacks mean = 4.5 (2-25, SD = 3.41). Data were stratified by decades. Number of events/month was analyzed by odds ratios and forecast modeling (ARIMA); means by ANOVA and post hoc tests, and correlations by multiple regression. We found 869 relapses: J = 72, F = 48, M = 122, A = 75, M = 68, Jn = 59, Jl = 81, A = 74, S = 63, O = 70, N = 72, D = 65. In 2001-2008 there was one significant peak (March); in 1991-2000 many (greatest = July), and in 1984-1990, one positive (June), one negative (April). Differences between 1990s and 2000s are significant. It is the first study addressing ultradecennal trends, and finding that the season distribution of MS attacks is significantly different: the study confirms frequency peaks in early spring and summer, but they are different in different decades. This significant ultra-decade difference might support hypotheses more linked to infections or toxic substances than to sunlight, UV, or similar.
先前的论文展示了多发性硬化症发作的季节性分布的不同模式。本文比较了长期的变化。审查了意大利南部的萨勒诺多发性硬化症登记处（Salerno MS registry），其中包括 189 名年龄在 12-51 岁之间的患者（平均年龄为 29.88，标准差为 8.4），疾病持续时间平均为 6.94 年（1-29），发作次数平均为 4.5 次（2-25，标准差为 3.41）。数据按十年进行分层。每月事件数通过优势比和预测模型（ARIMA）进行分析；平均值通过方差分析和事后检验进行分析，相关性通过多元回归进行分析。我们发现了 869 次复发：J = 72，F = 48，M = 122，A = 75，M = 68，Jn = 59，Jl = 81，A = 74，S = 63，O = 70，N = 72，D = 65。在 2001-2008 年，有一个明显的高峰期（三月）；在 1991-2000 年，有很多高峰期（最大为七月），而在 1984-1990 年，有一个正高峰（六月），一个负高峰（四月）。20 世纪 90 年代和 21 世纪的差异具有统计学意义。这是第一项研究多发性硬化症攻击的超十年趋势的研究，研究结果表明多发性硬化症攻击的季节分布明显不同：该研究证实了早春和夏季的发病频率高峰，但在不同的十年中有所不同。这种超十年的显著差异可能支持与感染或有毒物质有关的假说，而不是与阳光、紫外线或类似因素有关的假说。
