College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, China.
PLoS One. 2012;7(2):e31246. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0031246. Epub 2012 Feb 21.
The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPALS: We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP).
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°-50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability.
原产于亚洲的褐纹东方蝽（BMSB），即 Halyomorpha halys（Stål）（半翅目：蝽科），正在成为一种入侵物种，其分布范围在北美和欧洲迅速扩大。在美国，它是一种家庭害虫，也对农业作物造成了前所未有的破坏。探索其气候极限并估计其潜在地理分布可以为管理策略提供关键信息。
方法/原理：我们使用直接气候比较来探索 BMSB 本地和入侵种群所占据的气候小生境。基于原生范围的生态位模型被用于预测 BMSB 在全球的潜在分布。相反，基于引入范围的生态位模型被用于定位亚洲的原始入侵传播地。通过两种生态位建模算法（即 Maxent 和 GARP）确定具有高入侵潜力的区域。
结论/意义：环境空间的降维提高了原生模型在入侵区域的可转移性。将模型从入侵种群投影回原生分布区，可以提供有关入侵种群潜在源区的有价值信息。我们的模型成功预测了 BMSB 目前在美国的不连续分布。假设原始传播地来自日本北部或朝鲜西部。高气候适宜地区面临入侵风险，包括北纬 30°-50°之间的地区，包括北欧、北美东北部、澳大利亚南部和新西兰北岛。非洲的安哥拉和南美洲的乌拉圭也显示出较高的气候适宜性。
