European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2012.

BACKGROUND

Estimating current cancer mortality figures is important for defining priorities for prevention and treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models on mortality and population data from the World Health Organization database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates in 2012 from all cancers and selected cancer sites for the whole European Union (EU) and its six more populated countries.

RESULTS

Cancer deaths in the EU in 2012 are estimated to be 1,283,101 (717,398 men and 565,703 women) corresponding to standardized overall cancer death rates of 139/100,000 men and 85/100,000 women. The fall from 2007 was 10% in men and 7% in women. In men, declines are predicted for stomach (-20%), leukemias (-11%), lung and prostate (-10%) and colorectal (-7%) cancers, and for stomach (-23%), leukemias (-12%), uterus and colorectum (-11%) and breast (-9%) in women. Almost stable rates are expected for pancreatic cancer (+2-3%) and increases for female lung cancer (+7%). Younger women show the greatest falls in breast cancer mortality rates in the EU (-17%), and declines are expected in all individual countries, except Poland.

CONCLUSION

Apart for lung cancer in women and pancreatic cancer, continuing falls are expected in mortality from major cancers in the EU.