Department of Psychology and Institute of Information Processing and Decision Making, University of Haifa, Haifa 31905, Israel.
Science. 2012 Apr 20;336(6079):360-2. doi: 10.1126/science.1216549.
A recent study, using a perceptual task, indicated that two heads were better than one provided that the members could communicate freely, presumably sharing their confidence in their judgments. Capitalizing on recent work on subjective confidence, I replicated this effect in the absence of any dyadic interaction by selecting on each trial the decision of the more confident member of a virtual dyad. However, because subjective confidence monitors the consensuality rather than the accuracy of a decision, when most participants were in error, reliance on the more confident member yielded worse decisions than those of the better individual. Assuming that for each issue group decisions are dominated by the more confident member, these results help specify when groups will be more or less accurate than individuals.
最近的一项研究使用感知任务表明，只要成员能够自由交流，两个头比一个头好，大概是因为他们会分享自己对判断的信心。利用最近关于主观信心的研究，我通过在每次试验中选择虚拟对中更有信心的成员的决策，在没有任何二元互动的情况下复制了这种效果。然而，由于主观信心监测的是决策的一致性而不是准确性，当大多数参与者犯错时，依赖更有信心的成员会导致比个人更好的决策更糟糕。假设对于每个问题群体决策都由更有信心的成员主导，这些结果有助于确定群体何时比个人更准确或更不准确。
