CENTRUM Católica Graduate School of Business, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Peru.
PLoS One. 2012;7(5):e36731. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0036731. Epub 2012 May 8.
World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.
世界粮食价格在 2011 年 2 月达到历史最高水平,目前仍比 2000 年高出近两倍半。尽管全球有 30 亿人将海鲜作为动物蛋白质的主要来源之一,但联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)并未追踪海鲜价格。我们通过开发全球海鲜价格指数来填补这一空白,该指数有助于了解粮食危机,并可能有助于避免危机。鱼类价格指数(FPI)依赖于贸易统计数据,因为海鲜在国际上的交易量很大,这使得非贸易海鲜面临进口和出口的价格竞争。因此,易于更新的贸易数据可以替代许多地区难以观察到的国内海鲜价格,并且更新成本也可以覆盖全球。对不同国家价格竞争程度的计算支持了依赖贸易数据的合理性。总体而言,FPI 显示出的波动性低于其他食品价格指数(包括石油、谷物和乳制品),价格峰值也较少。FPI 总体上反映了海鲜的稀缺性,但也可以根据生产技术、鱼类种类或地区进行细分。将 FPI 细分为捕捞渔业和水产养殖表明,近年来捕捞渔业资源的稀缺性有所增加,但与需求保持同步的水产养殖也在增长。在区域层面,海鲜价格波动存在差异,一些价格呈负相关。这些模式表明,尽管海鲜的贸易自由度很高,但区域供应冲击对海鲜价格仍有重大影响。