Department of Psychology, Kwantlen Polytechnic University, 12666 72nd Avenue, Surrey, British Columbia, V3W 2M8, Canada.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2012 Aug;19(4):588-93. doi: 10.3758/s13423-012-0268-0.
People who know the outcome of an event tend to overestimate their own prior knowledge or others' naïve knowledge of it. This hindsight bias pervades cognition, lending the world an unwarranted air of inevitability. In four experiments, we showed how knowing the identities of words causes people to overestimate others' naïve ability to identify moderately to highly degraded spoken versions of those words. We also showed that this auditory hindsight bias occurs despite people's efforts to avoid it. We discuss our findings in the context of communication, in which speakers overestimate the clarity of their message and listeners overestimate their understanding of the message.
人们往往会高估自己对事件结果的了解程度，或者高估他人对此事的天真认知。这种后视偏差普遍存在于认知中，使得世界呈现出一种不必要的必然性。在四项实验中，我们展示了知道单词的身份如何导致人们高估他人对这些单词的中度到高度退化的口语版本的天真识别能力。我们还表明，尽管人们努力避免这种情况，但这种听觉后视偏差仍然存在。我们在交流的背景下讨论了我们的发现，在交流中，说话者高估了他们信息的清晰度，而听者高估了他们对信息的理解。
