Van Hook Jennifer, Zhang Weiwei
Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2011 Feb 1;30(1):1-24. doi: 10.1007/s11113-010-9183-0. Epub 2010 Apr 24.
We investigate the level and selectivity of emigration from the United States among foreign-born adults. We use the CPS Matching Method (Van Hook et al. 2006) to estimate the probability of emigration among foreign-born adults aged 18-34, 35-64 and 65+ from 1996 to 2009 (N = 92,852). The results suggest higher levels of emigration than used in the production of official population estimates. Also, indicators of economic integration (home ownership, school enrollment, poverty) and social ties in the U.S. (citizenship, having young children, longer duration in the United States) deter emigration. Conversely, having connections with the sending society, such as living apart from a spouse, was associated with emigration, particularly among Mexican men. Health was least strongly related to emigration. Simulations suggest that selective emigration may alter the home ownership and marital status, but not health, composition of immigrant cohorts. The implications for public policy are discussed.
我们研究了外国出生的成年人从美国移民的水平和选择性。我们使用CPS匹配方法（Van Hook等人，2006年）来估计1996年至2009年期间年龄在18 - 34岁、35 - 64岁和65岁及以上的外国出生成年人的移民概率（N = 92,852）。结果表明，移民水平高于官方人口估计数编制过程中所采用的水平。此外，美国经济融入指标（自有住房、入学率、贫困状况）和社会关系指标（公民身份、育有年幼子女、在美国居住时间较长）会抑制移民。相反，与移民输出国社会有联系，比如与配偶分居，则与移民有关，尤其是在墨西哥男性中。健康与移民的关联最小。模拟结果表明，选择性移民可能会改变自有住房和婚姻状况，但不会改变移民群体的健康构成。本文还讨论了其对公共政策的影响。
