A prospective study of the Acquired Preparedness Model: the effects of impulsivity and expectancies on smoking initiation in college students.

This study reports on a prospective test of the Acquired Preparedness Model, which posits that impulsivity influences cigarette smoking through the formation of more positive and fewer negative expectancies about smoking effects. College freshman never-smokers (n = 400; 45% male) completed a baseline interview and quarterly online follow-up assessments for 15 months after baseline. Structural equation modeling indicated that the effects of the impulsivity components of sensation seeking and negative urgency on risk of smoking initiation were mediated by expectancies for positive and negative reinforcement from smoking, respectively. Expectancies about negative consequences from smoking predicted initiation but did not mediate the effects of sensation seeking or negative urgency. Findings are consistent with the Acquired Preparedness Model and suggest that heightened impulsivity is associated with heightened expectancies for reinforcement from smoking, and thus with greater risk for smoking initiation.