Department of Medical Sociology and Health Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
Inj Prev. 2012 Dec;18(6):413-20. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040286. Epub 2012 Jun 22.
The majority of traffic safety policies are limited to preventing mortality. However, non-fatal injuries also impose a significant risk of adverse health. Therefore, both mortality and morbidity outcomes should be included in the evaluation of traffic safety policies. The authors propose a method to evaluate different policy options taking into account both fatalities and serious injuries.
A health impact model was developed and aligned with a transport and road safety model, calculating the health impact of fatalities and seriously injured traffic victims for two transport scenarios in Flanders and Brussels (Belgium): a base scenario and a fuel price increase of 20% as an alternative. Victim counts were expressed as disability adjusted life years, using a combination of police and medical data. Seriously injured victims were assigned an injury, using injury distributions derived from hospital data, to estimate the resulting health impact from each crash. Health impact of fatalities was taken as the remaining life expectancy at the moment of the fatal crash.
The fuel price scenario resulted in a decrease of health impact due to fatalities of 5.53%--5.85% and 3.37%--3.88% for severe injuries. This decrease was however not equal among all road users.
With this method, the impact of traffic polices can be evaluated on both mortality and morbidity, while taking into account the variability of different injuries following a road crash. This model however still underestimates the impact due to non-fatal injuries.
大多数交通安全政策仅限于预防死亡率。然而，非致命性伤害也会带来严重的健康风险。因此，在评估交通安全政策时，应同时考虑死亡率和发病率的结果。作者提出了一种方法，可以评估同时考虑致命伤害和严重伤害的不同政策选择。
开发了一个健康影响模型，并与交通和道路安全模型相匹配，为比利时弗拉芒和布鲁塞尔的两种交通情景（基准情景和燃料价格上涨 20%作为替代情景）计算了致命和严重受伤的交通受害者的健康影响。受害者人数以伤残调整生命年（DALY）表示，使用警察和医疗数据的组合。严重受伤的受害者根据医院数据得出的伤害分布进行了分配，以估计每次事故造成的健康影响。致命伤害的健康影响被视为致命事故发生时的剩余预期寿命。
燃料价格情景导致致命伤害的健康影响减少了 5.53%至 5.85%，严重伤害的健康影响减少了 3.37%至 3.88%。然而，这种减少在所有道路使用者中并不均衡。
使用这种方法，可以同时评估死亡率和发病率对交通安全政策的影响，同时考虑到道路事故后不同伤害的变化。然而，该模型仍低估了非致命性伤害的影响。
