Institute of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 Apr;141(4):697-705. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812001434. Epub 2012 Jul 16.
Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a type of vector-borne zoonosis sensitive to climate change. To explore the short-term effect of air temperature and amount of precipitation on HFRS incidence, a total of 13 722 clinically confirmed HFRS cases from January 1977 to December 2001 in Junan County, China were included in this study. According to symmetric bidirectional case-crossover design, the hazard period (the three calendar months preceding the month when the case was diagnosed) and the control period (the same calendar month of the year before and the year after the hazard period) matched and conditional logistic regression was used to examine the effect of monthly mean temperature and precipitation on the risk of HFRS. The results showed the facilitating climatic conditions for HFRS included: condition with moderate mean air temperature (10-25 °C) and abundant precipitation (>120 mm) 3 months before [odds ratio (OR) 1·346, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·191-1·522] and 2 months before (OR 1·193, 95% CI 1·063-1·339); and condition with temperature >25 °C and abundant precipitation (>120 mm) 3 months before (OR 1·17, 95% CI 1·004-1·363). Temperature of 10-25 °C and moderate precipitation (10-120 mm) in the current month was the most favourable condition for HFRS incidence.
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）是一种对气候变化敏感的媒介传播的动物源性传染病。为了探讨气温和降水量对 HFRS 发病率的短期影响，本研究纳入了 1977 年 1 月至 2001 年 12 月期间中国莒南县的 13722 例临床确诊的 HFRS 病例。根据对称双向病例交叉设计，将危险期（病例确诊前的三个月）和对照期（危险期的前一年和后一年的同月）相匹配，并使用条件逻辑回归来检验月平均温度和降水对 HFRS 风险的影响。结果表明，有利于 HFRS 的气候条件包括：前 3 个月（OR 1.346，95%CI 1.191-1.522）和前 2 个月（OR 1.193，95%CI 1.063-1.339）气温适中（10-25°C）且降水丰富（>120mm）；前 3 个月气温>25°C 且降水丰富（>120mm）（OR 1.17，95%CI 1.004-1.363）。当前月气温在 10-25°C 之间且降水适中（10-120mm）是 HFRS 发病的最有利条件。
