Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI, Canada.
Zoonoses Public Health. 2013 Sep;60(6):383-411. doi: 10.1111/zph.12010. Epub 2012 Sep 3.
Increasing incidences of emerging and re-emerging diseases that are mostly zoonotic (e.g. severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza H5N1, pandemic influenza) has led to the need for a multidisciplinary approach to tackling these threats to public and animal health. Accordingly, a global movement of 'One-Health/One-Medicine' has been launched to foster collaborative efforts amongst animal and human health officials and researchers to address these problems. Historical evidence points to the fact that pandemics caused by influenza A viruses remain a major zoonotic threat to mankind. Recently, a range of mathematical and computer simulation modelling methods and tools have increasingly been applied to improve our understanding of disease transmission dynamics, contingency planning and to support policy decisions on disease outbreak management. This review provides an overview of methods, approaches and software used for modelling the spread of zoonotic influenza viruses in animals and humans, particularly those related to the animal-human interface. Modelling parameters used in these studies are summarized to provide references for future work. This review highlights the limited application of modelling research to influenza in animals and at the animal-human interface, in marked contrast to the large volume of its research in human populations. Although swine are widely recognized as a potential host for generating novel influenza viruses, and that some of these viruses, including pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009, have been shown to be readily transmissible between humans and swine, only one study was found related to the modelling of influenza spread at the swine-human interface. Significant gaps in the knowledge of frequency of novel viral strains evolution in pigs, farm-level natural history of influenza infection, incidences of influenza transmission between farms and between swine and humans are clearly evident. Therefore, there is a need to direct additional research to the study of influenza transmission dynamics in animals and at the animal-human interface.
不断增加的新发和再发传染病（例如严重急性呼吸综合征、禽流感 H5N1、大流行性流感）主要是动物源性传染病，这使得需要采取多学科方法来应对这些对公共卫生和动物健康的威胁。因此，发起了全球“同一健康/同一医学”运动，以促进动物和人类卫生官员和研究人员之间的合作，以解决这些问题。历史证据表明，由甲型流感病毒引起的大流行仍然是对人类的主要动物源性威胁。最近，越来越多的数学和计算机模拟建模方法和工具已被应用于提高我们对疾病传播动力学、应急规划的理解，并支持疾病爆发管理的政策决策。本综述概述了用于在动物和人类中建模动物源流感病毒传播的方法、方法和软件，特别是与动物-人类界面相关的方法和软件。总结了这些研究中使用的建模参数，为今后的工作提供参考。本综述强调了模型研究在动物和动物-人类界面流感方面的应用有限，与在人群中对流感的大量研究形成鲜明对比。尽管猪被广泛认为是产生新型流感病毒的潜在宿主，并且其中一些病毒，包括 2009 年的甲型流感/ H1N1 大流行，已被证明在人类和猪之间具有很强的传染性，但只有一项研究与猪-人类界面的流感传播建模有关。显然，猪中新型病毒株进化的频率、流感感染的农场级自然史、农场之间以及猪与人之间流感传播的发生率等方面的知识存在明显差距。因此，需要将更多的研究重点放在动物和动物-人类界面的流感传播动力学研究上。
