Epidemiology Unit, Animal Health Laboratory, Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France.
Zoonoses Public Health. 2012 Sep;59 Suppl 2:170-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1863-2378.2011.01453.x.
In early 2001, Mycobacterium bovis infection was confirmed in red deer (RD) (Cervus elaphus) shot in Normandy region, France. An epidemiological survey conducted during the following hunting season in two connected forests confirmed the occurrence of the disease in both free-ranging RD and wild boar (WB) (Sus scrofa). This was the first detected bovine tuberculosis outbreak in wildlife in France. We present a simple deterministic age-structured model of the within- and between-species M. bovis transmission in RD and WB populations that distinguishes direct transmission (horizontal and pseudo-vertical) and indirect transmission through contaminated offal left behind by hunters. Results issued from the epidemiological surveys conducted in Normandy forests were used to estimate transmission parameters. Because data for RD and WB populations were not available, population sizes at demographic equilibrium were estimated and used to run the model. We qualitatively tested different control measure scenarios with our model, considering different mortality rates and offal harvesting, to determine which ones affect the success of infection control. The most realistic control scenario would combine the total depopulation of RD and good compliance with offal harvesting, because the model suggests that infected offal left by hunters represents the main transmission source of M. bovis in the field.
2001 年初，法国诺曼底地区射杀的红鹿（ Cervus elaphus ）被证实感染了牛分枝杆菌。在接下来的狩猎季节，对两个相连的森林进行的流行病学调查证实，该病也发生在自由放养的红鹿和野猪（ Sus scrofa ）中。这是法国首次在野生动物中发现牛型结核。我们提出了一个简单的、基于年龄结构的、区分直接传播（水平和伪垂直）和间接传播（通过猎人留下的被污染的内脏）的红鹿和野猪种群中牛分枝杆菌传播的确定性模型。来自诺曼底森林进行的流行病学调查的数据被用来估计传播参数。由于没有 RD 和 WB 种群的数据，在人口平衡时的种群规模被估计出来并用于运行模型。我们使用模型定性测试了不同的控制措施方案，考虑了不同的死亡率和内脏采集，以确定哪些方案会影响感染控制的效果。最现实的控制方案将包括 RD 的彻底清除和对内脏采集的良好遵守，因为模型表明，猎人留下的受感染内脏是该疾病在野外的主要传播源。
