Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
PLoS One. 2012;7(11):e50972. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0050972. Epub 2012 Nov 30.
Dengue viruses are major contributors to illness and death globally. Here we analyze the extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods (EIP and IIP), in the mosquito and human, respectively. We identified 146 EIP observations from 8 studies and 204 IIP observations from 35 studies. These data were fitted with censored Bayesian time-to-event models. The best-fitting temperature-dependent EIP model estimated that 95% of EIPs are between 5 and 33 days at 25°C, and 2 and 15 days at 30°C, with means of 15 and 6.5 days, respectively. The mean IIP estimate was 5.9 days, with 95% expected between days 3 and 10. Differences between serotypes were not identified for either incubation period. These incubation period models should be useful in clinical diagnosis, outbreak investigation, prevention and control efforts, and mathematical modeling of dengue virus transmission.
登革热病毒是全球疾病和死亡的主要原因。在这里，我们分别分析了蚊子和人类的外潜伏期（EIP）和内潜伏期（IIP）。我们从 8 项研究中确定了 146 个 EIP 观察值，从 35 项研究中确定了 204 个 IIP 观察值。这些数据采用有截尾的贝叶斯时变事件模型进行拟合。最佳拟合的温度依赖性 EIP 模型估计，在 25°C 下，95%的 EIP 在 5 到 33 天之间，在 30°C 下，95%的 EIP 在 2 到 15 天之间，平均值分别为 15 天和 6.5 天。IIP 的平均估计值为 5.9 天，95%的预期值在第 3 天到第 10 天之间。这两个潜伏期的血清型之间没有差异。这些潜伏期模型应有助于临床诊断、疫情调查、预防和控制工作以及登革热病毒传播的数学建模。
