Université Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, UMR S 707, Paris, France.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2011 Sep;5(5):306-16. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00234.x. Epub 2011 Mar 31.
The new influenza virus A/H1N1 (2009), identified in mid-2009, rapidly spread over the world. Estimating the transmissibility of this new virus was a public health priority.
We reviewed all studies presenting estimates of the serial interval or generation time and the reproduction number of the A/H1N1 (2009) virus infection.
Thirteen studies documented the serial interval from household or close-contact studies, with overall mean 3 days (95% CI: 2·4, 3·6); taking into account tertiary transmission reduced this estimate to 2·6 days. Model-based estimates were more variable, from 1·9 to 6 days. Twenty-four studies reported reproduction numbers for community-based epidemics at the town or country level. The range was 1·2-3·1, with larger estimates reported at the beginning of the pandemic. Accounting for under-reporting in the early period of the pandemic and limiting variation because of the choice of the generation time interval, the reproduction number was between 1·2 and 2·3 with median 1·5.
The serial interval of A/H1N1 (2009) flu was typically short, with mean value similar to the seasonal flu. The estimates of the reproduction number were more variable. Compared with past influenza pandemics, the median reproduction number was similar (1968) or slightly smaller (1889, 1918, 1957).
2009 年中期发现的新型甲型 H1N1（2009）流感病毒迅速在全球范围内传播。评估这种新型病毒的传染性是公共卫生的当务之急。
我们回顾了所有报告甲型 H1N1（2009）病毒感染的序列间隔或代时和繁殖数估计值的研究。
13 项研究记录了来自家庭或密切接触研究的序列间隔，总体平均值为 3 天（95%CI：2.4，3.6）；考虑到三级传播，这一估计值降低到 2.6 天。基于模型的估计值更为多变，为 1.9 至 6 天。24 项研究报告了基于社区的传染病在城镇或国家一级的繁殖数。范围为 1.2-3.1，大流行初期报告的估计值较大。在大流行早期考虑到报告不足，并因代时间隔的选择而限制了变异性，繁殖数在 1.2 到 2.3 之间，中位数为 1.5。
甲型 H1N1（2009）流感的序列间隔通常较短，平均值与季节性流感相似。繁殖数的估计值更为多变。与过去的流感大流行相比，中位数繁殖数相似（1968 年）或略小（1889 年、1918 年、1957 年）。
