Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Health Services and Systems Research Program, Singapore 169857.
Health Serv Res. 2013 Apr;48(2 Pt 2):773-91. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12030. Epub 2013 Jan 24.
To understand the effect of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on family eldercare hours for older adults (60 years of age and older) in Singapore.
The Social Isolation Health and Lifestyles Survey, the Survey on Informal Caregiving, and the Singapore Government's Ministry of Health and Department of Statistics.
An LTC Model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available reports and data as well as informal consultation with LTC experts.
In the absence of policy change, among the elderly living at home with limitations in their activities of daily living (ADLs), the proportion of those with greater ADL limitations will increase. In addition, by 2030, average family eldercare hours per week are projected to increase by 41 percent from 29 to 41 hours. All policy levers considered would moderate or significantly reduce family eldercare hours.
System dynamics modeling was useful in providing policy makers with an overview of the levers available to them and in demonstrating the interdependence of policies and system components.
了解新加坡现行和未来长期护理政策对老年人（60 岁及以上）家庭护理时间的影响。
社会隔离健康和生活方式调查、非正式护理调查，以及新加坡卫生部和统计局。
使用系统动力学方法创建长期护理模型，并使用可用报告和数据以及与长期护理专家的非正式协商进行参数化。
在没有政策变化的情况下，在家中生活且日常生活活动（ADL）受限的老年人中，ADL 受限程度较高的老年人比例将会增加。此外，到 2030 年，预计每周家庭老年护理时间将从 29 小时增加 41%，达到 41 小时。考虑的所有政策杠杆都将适度或显著减少家庭老年护理时间。
系统动力学建模有助于决策者全面了解可供他们使用的政策杠杆，并展示政策和系统组件的相互依存关系。
