Balbo Nicoletta, Billari Francesco C, Mills Melinda
Department of Sociology (ICS), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Eur J Popul. 2013 Feb;29(1):1-38. doi: 10.1007/s10680-012-9277-y. Epub 2012 Sep 12.
This paper provides a review of fertility research in advanced societies, societies in which birth control is the default option. The central aim is to provide a comprehensive review that summarizes how contemporary research has explained ongoing and expected fertility changes across time and space (i.e., cross- and within-country heterogeneity). A secondary aim is to provide an analytical synthesis of the core determinants of fertility, grouping them within the analytical level in which they operate. Determinants are positioned at the individual and/or couple level (micro-level), social relationships and social networks (meso-level); and, by cultural and institutional settings (macro-level). The focus is both on the quantum and on the tempo of fertility, with a particular focus on the postponement of childbearing. The review incorporates both theoretical and empirical contributions, with attention placed on empirically tested research and whether results support or falsify existing theoretical expectations. Attention is also devoted to causality and endogeneity issues. The paper concludes with an outline of the current challenges and opportunities for future research.
本文对发达社会(即节育是默认选择的社会)的生育研究进行了综述。核心目标是提供一份全面的综述,总结当代研究如何解释不同时间和空间(即跨国和国内异质性)下持续的和预期的生育变化。次要目标是对生育的核心决定因素进行分析性综合,将它们按照其发挥作用的分析层面进行归类。决定因素分为个人和/或夫妇层面(微观层面)、社会关系和社会网络(中观层面);以及文化和制度背景(宏观层面)。重点既在于生育数量,也在于生育节奏,尤其关注生育推迟情况。该综述纳入了理论和实证贡献,关注经过实证检验的研究以及结果是否支持或证伪现有的理论预期。同时也关注因果关系和内生性问题。本文最后概述了当前的挑战以及未来研究的机遇。