Guindon G Emmanuel
Faculté de Médecine, Département d'administration de la santé, Université de Montréal, C.P.6128, Succursale Centre-ville, Montreal, QC, H3C 3J7, Canada,
Eur J Health Econ. 2014 Jan;15(1):19-39. doi: 10.1007/s10198-012-0444-1. Epub 2013 Mar 8.
The benefits of preventing smoking onset are well known, and even just delaying smoking onset conveys benefits. Tobacco control policies are of critical importance to low-income countries with high smoking rates such as Vietnam where smoking prevalence is greater than 55 % in young men between the ages of 25 and 45. Using a survey of teens and young adults, I conducted duration analyses to explore the impact of tobacco price on smoking onset. The results suggest that tobacco prices in Vietnam have a statistically significant and fairly substantial effect on the onset of smoking. Increases in average tobacco prices, measured by an index of tobacco prices and by the prices of two popular brands, are found to delay smoking onset. Of particular interest is the finding that Vietnamese youth are more sensitive to changes in prices of a popular international brand that has had favourable tax treatment since the late 1990s.
预防吸烟开始的益处众所周知，甚至仅仅推迟吸烟开始也能带来好处。烟草控制政策对于像越南这样吸烟率高的低收入国家至关重要，在越南，25至45岁的年轻男性吸烟率超过55%。通过对青少年和年轻人的一项调查，我进行了持续时间分析，以探究烟草价格对吸烟开始的影响。结果表明，越南的烟草价格对吸烟开始具有统计学上显著且相当大的影响。通过烟草价格指数和两个流行品牌的价格衡量的平均烟草价格上涨，被发现会推迟吸烟开始。特别值得关注的是这一发现：自20世纪90年代末以来，越南年轻人对一个受到优惠税收待遇的流行国际品牌的价格变化更为敏感。
