The vanishing ozone weekday/weekend effect.

UNLABELLED

A national analysis of weekday/weekend ozone (O3) differences conducted using 1997-1999 data found that many urban areas experienced at least 5% higher 8-hr maximum O3 concentrations on weekends than on weekdays even though emissions of precursors were significantly lower on weekends. This phenomenon was observed mostly in urban areas in the Northeast, Midwest, and coastal California. A similar analysis using 2008-2010 O3 data shows that this phenomenon has mostly vanished. From 1997-1999 to 2008-2010, the percentage of U.S. monitoring sites that experienced 95th percentile daily 8-hr maximum average O3 concentration on weekends that were 5% or more higher than on weekdays declined from about 35% to less than 5%. At the same time the percentage of sites that experienced higher weekday concentrations increased from 3% to about 27%. The majority (68%) of the sites, however exhibited little sensitivity to the weekday/weekend emission changes as they had similar (+/- 5%) O3 on weekdays and weekends. Similar trends were observed for the three other O3 metrics examined: the 95th percentile of the 1-hr maximum and the April-September means of the 1-hr and 8-hr daily maxima. Over this time period, U.S. emissions of O3 precursors declined significantly. However, a greater decline in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions has caused an increase in the volatile organic compounds (VOC)/NOx emission ratios and it appears that this is the reason for the shift away from higher weekend O3 concentrations.

IMPLICATIONS

In areas where weekend emissions of ozone precursors are lower than on weekdays because of mainly lower motor vehicle emissions, an inadvertent test of ozone control strategies occurs. Such a test provides information on how control strategies that produce emission changes similar to those that occur on weekends affect ozone concentrations. In the late 1990s, lower NOx emissions on weekends resulted in higher levels of ozone in many urban areas. Emission controls that have been enacted since then appear to have eliminated that phenomenon in most urban areas. However, most areas now indicate that weekend emission reductions now have little effect on ozone concentrations at most sites.