Svennebring Andreas M, Wikberg Jarl Es
Department of Pharmaceutical Biosciences, Division of Pharmaceutical Bioinformatics, Biomedical Centre, Uppsala University, Box 591, SE751 24 Uppsala, Sweden.
Springerplus. 2013 Apr 1;2(1):140. doi: 10.1186/2193-1801-2-140. Print 2013 Dec.
Three dedicated approaches to the calculation of the risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) in drug discovery projects under different assumptions are suggested. The probability of finding a candidate drug suitable for clinical development and the time to the initiation of the clinical development is assumed to be flexible in contrast to the previously used models. The rNPV of the post-discovery cash flows is calculated as the probability weighted average of the rNPV at each potential time of initiation of clinical development. Practical considerations how to set probability rates, in particular during the initiation and termination of a project is discussed.
针对不同假设下药物研发项目中风险调整净现值（rNPV）的计算，提出了三种专门的方法。与先前使用的模型不同，发现适合临床开发的候选药物的概率以及启动临床开发的时间被假定为可变的。发现后现金流的rNPV计算为每个潜在临床开发启动时间的rNPV的概率加权平均值。讨论了如何设定概率率的实际考虑因素，特别是在项目启动和终止期间。
