Institute of Forensic Research, Department of Road Accident Analysis, ul. Westerplatte 9, 31-033 Kraków, Poland.
Forensic Sci Int. 2013 May 10;228(1-3):83-93. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.02.026. Epub 2013 Mar 18.
Reconstruction of road accidents combines objective and subjective action. The former concerns science, the latter assessment of human behavior in the context of objective findings. It is not uncommon for experts equipped with an arsenal of tools to obtain similar results of calculations, but to present radically different conclusions about the cause of the accident. The use of sophisticated methods of uncertainty analysis does not guarantee improvement in quality of reconstruction, because, increasingly, the most serious source of reduced reliability of reconstruction is problems in logical inference. In the article the structure of uncertainty and reliability of accident reconstruction was described. A definition of reliability of road accident reconstruction based on the theory of conditional probability and Bayesian network, as a function of modeling, data and expert reliability (defined in the text) was proposed. The uncertainty of reconstruction was made dependent only on the uncertainty of the data. This separation makes it possible to conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of reconstruction reliability and to analyze its sensitivity to component parameters, independently of the uncertainty analysis. An example of calculation was presented. The proposed formalism constitutes a tool helpful to explain, among other things, the paradox of reliable reconstruction despite its uncertain results or unreliable reconstruction despite high precision of results. This approach is of great importance in the reconstruction of road accidents, which goes far beyond the analysis of a single, homogeneous subsystem.
道路交通事故重建结合了客观和主观行动。前者涉及科学，后者则是在客观发现的背景下评估人类行为。专家们拥有一整套工具，他们获得的计算结果可能相似，但对事故原因的陈述却可能大相径庭，这种情况并不罕见。尽管使用复杂的不确定性分析方法并不能保证重建质量的提高，但逻辑推理方面的问题越来越成为降低重建可靠性的最严重因素。本文描述了事故重建的不确定性和可靠性结构。提出了一种基于条件概率和贝叶斯网络理论的道路交通事故重建可靠性定义，将其定义为建模、数据和专家可靠性（本文中定义）的函数。重建的不确定性仅取决于数据的不确定性。这种分离使得对重建可靠性进行定性和定量分析，并分析其对组成参数的敏感性成为可能，而无需进行不确定性分析。本文还给出了一个计算示例。所提出的形式主义构成了一种工具，有助于解释，除其他外，尽管结果不确定但重建可靠，或者尽管结果精度高但重建不可靠的悖论。这种方法在道路交通事故重建中非常重要，它远远超出了对单一、同质子系统的分析。
