GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines, King of Prussia, PA, USA.
GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines, Wavre, Belgium.
Epidemiol Infect. 2014 Mar;142(3):468-78. doi: 10.1017/S0950268813001106. Epub 2013 May 23.
We present a basic mathematical model of Staphylococcus aureus transmission in the USA based on natural history of infection and nationally representative data. We employed a Susceptible-Colonized-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible compartmental modelling framework with two different phenotypes of S. aureus: methicillin-susceptible (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant (MRSA). The model is dynamic and accounts for the US population growth. For model calibration/validation, we used published 1999-2005 S. aureus infection data in conjunction with the 2001-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey colonization data. Baseline model projections illustrated how MRSA might continue to expand and gradually replace MSSA over time, in the absence of intervention, if there is strong competition for colonization. The model-based estimate of the basic reproduction number (R0) highlights the need for infection control. We illustrate the potential population-level impact of intervention with a hypothetical S. aureus vaccination component.
我们提出了一个基于感染自然史和全国代表性数据的美国金黄色葡萄球菌传播的基本数学模型。我们采用了一个易感性-定植-感染-恢复-易感性的分隔模型框架，并考虑了两种不同表型的金黄色葡萄球菌：甲氧西林敏感型（MSSA）和甲氧西林耐药型（MRSA）。该模型是动态的，并考虑了美国人口的增长。为了模型校准/验证，我们使用了已发表的 1999-2005 年金黄色葡萄球菌感染数据，并结合了 2001-2004 年全国健康和营养检查调查的定植数据。基线模型预测说明了如果没有干预，如果定植存在强烈竞争，MRSA 可能会继续扩张并逐渐取代 MSSA。基于模型的基本繁殖数（R0）估计强调了感染控制的必要性。我们通过一个假设的金黄色葡萄球菌疫苗接种成分说明了干预的潜在人群水平影响。
