School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
PLoS One. 2013 May 28;8(5):e64713. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064713. Print 2013.
Previous studies have found that high and cold temperatures increase the risk of childhood diarrhea. However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any effect on childhood diarrhea.
A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range and emergency department admissions for diarrhea among children under five years in Brisbane, from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2009.
There was a statistically significant relationship between diurnal temperature range and childhood diarrhea. The effect of diurnal temperature range on childhood diarrhea was the greatest at one day lag, with a 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%-5%) increase of emergency department admissions per 1°C increment of diurnal temperature range.
Within-day variation of temperature appeared to be a risk factor for childhood diarrhea. The incidence of childhood diarrhea may increase if climate variability increases as predicted.
先前的研究发现,高温和低温都会增加儿童腹泻的风险。然而,目前对于日温度变化是否会对儿童腹泻产生影响还知之甚少。
本研究采用泊松广义线性回归模型结合分布式滞后非线性模型,分析了 2003 年 1 月 1 日至 2009 年 12 月 31 日期间,布里斯班 5 岁以下儿童因腹泻到急诊就诊的情况与日温差之间的关系。
日温差与儿童腹泻之间存在统计学显著关系。日温差对儿童腹泻的影响在滞后 1 天最大,日温差每升高 1°C,急诊就诊人数增加 3%(95%置信区间:2%-5%)。
日温度变化似乎是儿童腹泻的一个危险因素。如果气候变化如预测的那样变得更加不稳定,儿童腹泻的发病率可能会增加。