Rivera Elizabeth Pellecer, De Urioste-Stone Sandra, Rickard Laura N, K C Anup, Rodríguez Stimson Julio, Caprara Andrea, Estrada Lorena N
Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469-5755, USA.
School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469-5755, USA.
Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines. 2025 Jun 15;11(1):20. doi: 10.1186/s40794-025-00252-5.
This study assesses international travelers' risk perceptions and travel decisions related to three recent emerging diseases. Travelers can facilitate the spread of emerging infectious diseases and their decision-making on where to travel is influenced by outbreaks. These feedback loops can potentially impact the tourism economy. Often, travelers' judgment and actions towards a risk are based on their perceptions.
We conducted two surveys, using constructs from the Health Belief Model, with 747 individuals who had recently traveled to selected Latin American countries, and who had heard about Zika virus, chikungunya, and/or COVID-19. Using segmentation analysis, the respondents were grouped based on their risk perception level (i.e., low, medium and high), and we tested the differences between groups for different constructs of the model.
We found a significant difference between the risk perception groups for most of the sociodemographic factors, as well as for the purpose of the trip, regarding travel preferences. Personal experience with a disease and perceived efficacy towards diverse protective measures also differed between groups. Higher risk perception was related to reporting more changes in past travel plans, and higher likelihood of future travel avoidance if facing different risk scenarios in a tourism destination.
Including the concepts of risk perception, sociodemographic factors, previous experience, and efficacy can help better explain the individual behavior of international travelers. These findings can inform tailored and more effective mitigation and management strategies to promote safe travel and prevent disease spread in the event of a future outbreak.
本研究评估了国际旅行者对三种近期出现的疾病的风险认知和旅行决策。旅行者可能会促进新发传染病的传播，他们在前往何处旅行的决策会受到疫情爆发的影响。这些反馈回路可能会对旅游经济产生潜在影响。通常，旅行者对风险的判断和行动基于他们的认知。
我们采用健康信念模型的构建方法进行了两项调查，调查对象为747名近期前往选定拉丁美洲国家且听说过寨卡病毒、基孔肯雅热和/或新冠肺炎的个人。通过细分分析，根据受访者的风险认知水平（即低、中、高）对他们进行分组，并测试模型不同构建在组间的差异。
我们发现，在大多数社会人口学因素以及旅行目的方面，风险认知组在旅行偏好上存在显著差异。不同组在疾病的个人经历以及对各种保护措施的感知效果方面也存在差异。更高的风险认知与报告过去旅行计划有更多变化以及如果在旅游目的地面临不同风险情景时未来避免旅行的可能性更高有关。
纳入风险认知、社会人口学因素、既往经历和效果等概念有助于更好地解释国际旅行者的个体行为。这些发现可为制定更有针对性、更有效的缓解和管理策略提供参考，以促进安全旅行并在未来疫情爆发时预防疾病传播。
