Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Sep;89(3):564-9. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.12-0771. Epub 2013 Aug 12.
To study the link between climatic variables and the incidence of leishmaniasis a study was conducted in Cayenne, French Guiana. Patients infected between January 1994 and December 2010. Meteorological data were studied in relation to the incidence of leishmaniasis using an ARIMA model. In the final model, the infections were negatively correlated with rainfall (with a 2-month lag) and with the number of days with rainfall > 50 mm (lags of 4 and 7 months). The variables that were positively correlated were temperature and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index with lags of 8 and 4 months, respectively. Significantly greater correlations were observed in March for rainfall and in November for the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index. Climate thus seems to be a non-negligible explanatory variable for the fluctuations of leishmaniasis. A decrease in rainfall is linked to increased cases 2 months later. This easily perceptible point could lead to an interesting prevention message.
为了研究气候变量与利什曼病发病率之间的关系，在法属圭亚那的卡宴进行了一项研究。研究对象为 1994 年 1 月至 2010 年 12 月期间感染的患者。使用 ARIMA 模型研究气象数据与利什曼病发病率之间的关系。在最终模型中，感染与降雨量（滞后 2 个月）和降雨量>50 毫米的天数（滞后 4 个月和 7 个月）呈负相关。呈正相关的变量分别为温度和多变量厄尔尼诺南方涛动指数，滞后时间分别为 8 个月和 4 个月。降雨量的相关性在 3 月更为显著，而多变量厄尔尼诺/南方涛动指数的相关性在 11 月更为显著。因此，气候似乎是利什曼病波动的一个不可忽视的解释变量。降雨量减少与 2 个月后病例增加有关。这一明显的关联可能会引发一个有趣的预防信息。
