Daniel J Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering and Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Aug 20;110 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):14055-61. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1213532110. Epub 2013 Aug 12.
All decisions, whether they are personal, public, or business-related, are based on the decision maker's beliefs and values. Science can and should help decision makers by shaping their beliefs. Unfortunately, science is not easily accessible to decision makers, and scientists often do not understand decision makers' information needs. This article presents a framework for bridging the gap between science and decision making and illustrates it with two examples. The first example is a personal health decision. It shows how a formal representation of the beliefs and values can reflect scientific inputs by a physician to combine with the values held by the decision maker to inform a medical choice. The second example is a public policy decision about managing a potential environmental hazard. It illustrates how controversial beliefs can be reflected as uncertainties and informed by science to make better decisions. Both examples use decision analysis to bridge science and decisions. The conclusions suggest that this can be a helpful process that requires skills in both science and decision making.
所有决策，无论是个人、公共还是商业相关，都基于决策者的信念和价值观。科学可以并且应该通过塑造决策者的信念来帮助他们。不幸的是，决策者往往无法接触到科学，而科学家也常常不了解决策者的信息需求。本文提出了一个弥合科学与决策之间差距的框架，并通过两个例子来说明。第一个例子是个人健康决策，它展示了如何通过正式表示信念和价值观来反映医生的科学投入，将其与决策者的价值观相结合，为医疗选择提供信息。第二个例子是关于管理潜在环境危害的公共政策决策，它说明了如何将有争议的信念反映为不确定性，并通过科学来做出更好的决策。这两个例子都使用决策分析来弥合科学和决策之间的差距。结论表明，这是一个有益的过程，需要具备科学和决策制定方面的技能。
