School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
PLoS One. 2013 Aug 29;8(8):e72129. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072129. eCollection 2013.
The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i) the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii) the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports) for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.
过去十年间，旅行感染登革热的病例数量持续在全球范围内上升。来自登革热流行地区的国际客运航空交通量增加，导致流行地区和其他地区的登革热病例数量上升。本文报告了一种基于网络的风险评估模型的结果，该模型使用国际客运旅行量、旅行路线、旅行距离、区域人口以及预测物种分布模型（针对两种病媒蚊，埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊）来量化每个机场输入具有旅行感染登革热的乘客的相对风险。评估了两个风险属性：(i) 每个中途停留机场的过境交通带来的风险，和 (ii) 每个目的地机场的入境旅客带来的风险。模型结果为有针对性的登革热监测确定了最佳位置（即机场）。该模型很容易扩展到其他虫媒传染病。
