Department of Paediatrics, Childhood Cancer Research Group, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LG, UK.
Br J Cancer. 2013 Nov 26;109(11):2880-5. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2013.560. Epub 2013 Sep 12.
Concern about the risk of leukaemia in children living near nuclear power plants (NPPs) persists. Previous British analyses have been area based and consequently thought to be less effective than case-control studies.
Cases of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (LNHL) born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2007, with matched cancer-free controls, were analysed by logistic regression to estimate the risk of residential proximity at birth and diagnosis to the nearest NPP, adjusting for relevant variables.
For 9821 children with LNHL under the age of 5 years, the estimated extra risk associated with residential proximity to an NPP at birth was negative-interpolated Odds Ratio (OR) at 5 km was 0.86 (0.49-1.52). The comparison of 10 618 children with LNHL under five with 16 760 similarly aged children with other cancers also gave a negative estimate of the extra risk of residential proximity at diagnosis-interpolated OR at 5 km was 0.86 (0.62-1.18).
Our results show little evidence of an increase in risk of LNHL to children aged under 5 years from living in the vicinity of an NPP. Risk estimates are incompatible with comparable ones published in a recent German case-control study.
人们一直担忧居住在核电站(NPP)附近的儿童罹患白血病的风险。先前英国的分析都是基于区域,因此被认为不如病例对照研究有效。
通过逻辑回归分析,对 1962 年至 2007 年间在英国出生和诊断的儿童白血病和非霍奇金淋巴瘤(LNHL)病例,以及与之相匹配的无癌症对照病例进行了分析,以估计出生时和诊断时与最近的 NPP 之间的居住临近程度的风险,同时调整了相关变量。
对于 9821 名年龄在 5 岁以下的 LNHL 患儿,与居住在 NPP 附近相关的额外风险的估计值为 5 公里处的负插值比值比(OR)为 0.86(0.49-1.52)。将 10618 名年龄在 5 岁以下的 LNHL 患儿和 16760 名年龄相同的其他癌症患儿进行比较,也得出了诊断时居住临近的额外风险的负估计值,5 公里处的插值 OR 为 0.86(0.62-1.18)。
我们的结果几乎没有证据表明,居住在核电站附近的 5 岁以下儿童罹患 LNHL 的风险会增加。风险估计与最近德国一项病例对照研究公布的结果不一致。