Safety margins for lead in the general population.

The results of monitoring blood lead concentrations, the accepted biological indicator for lead in man, are examined against the three trigger values put forward in the UK, first as justifying environmental investigation (25 μg 100 ml(-1)), second as justifying health checks (35 μg 100 ml(-1)) and third as likely to give rise to obvious symptoms in a few individuals (50 μg 100 ml(-1)). Arguments for using the proportion or the number of individuals above a trigger value rather than the ratio of the mean blood lead concentration to the trigger value, the conventional safety margin, are presented. The numbers of individuals or proportions in the total population who are likely to be above the trigger values have been estimated and shown to be relatively small for all three. Factors likely to affect blood lead concentrations are examined against the possible effects of the changes, current and proposed, in the controls imposed on lead usage and on pathways. The qualitative changes expected are considered by groups-eg. smokers and drinkers, by regions, eg., those with lead-free drinking water as against those still with lead in their supplies, and for the general population eg. from the elimination of the soldered can for food and the reduction, and eventual elimination, of lead in petrol.Because the relationship between intake and blood concentration is non-linear in the UK, those with the highest existing blood lead concentrations in the general population must be expected to show the smallest relative reductions in blood lead for any small reduction in exposure. The analysis also concludes that those at highest risk will have to depend on their being identified individually and action taken on them and their immediate specific environment.