Nickbakhsh S, Matthews L, Reid S W J, Kao R R
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine,University of Glasgow,Bearsden Road, Scotland,UK.
Royal Veterinary College,University of London,North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire,UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2014 Sep;142(9):1813-25. doi: 10.1017/S0950268813002963. Epub 2013 Dec 5.
Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more 'risky' option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.
尽管家禽产业各组成部分的分区具有重大经济影响，因此是一个对全球家禽产业具有重大意义的概念，但目前对分区状况的要求对所有世界动物卫生组织成员国来说都是通用的。我们使用集合种群建模框架研究了英国家禽产业中高致病性禽流感潜在暴发的后果。该框架用于评估分区相对于区域控制的有效性，利用实证数据通过网络链接和空间邻近性来确定英国家禽产业内潜在流行病学接触的结构。我们确定了这样的情况：尽管通过消除网络介导的链接有效地隔离了家禽分区，但空间介导的空气传播使得感染蔓延到附近场所，从而使分区成为比区域控制更“危险”的选择。然而，当区域控制不能有效抑制长距离网络链接时，分区就成为比区域控制相对更有效的控制措施。随着对空气传播可能距离范围的更深入了解，我们的方法有助于确定合适的最小农场间距离，为英国的分区提供更具体的指导方针。
