Department of Mathematics and Statistics, 16 Richmond Street, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XQ, UK.
BMC Vet Res. 2011 Oct 13;7:59. doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-7-59.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have had devastating effects on poultry industries worldwide, and there is concern about the potential for HPAI outbreaks in the poultry industry in Great Britain (GB). Critical to the potential for HPAI to spread between poultry premises are the connections made between farms by movements related to human activity. Movement records of catching teams and slaughterhouse vehicles were obtained from a large catching company, and these data were used in a simulation model of HPAI spread between farms serviced by the catching company, and surrounding (geographic) areas. The spread of HPAI through real-time movements was modelled, with the addition of spread via company personnel and local transmission.
The model predicted that although large outbreaks are rare, they may occur, with long distances between infected premises. Final outbreak size was most sensitive to the probability of spread via slaughterhouse-linked movements whereas the probability of onward spread beyond an index premises was most sensitive to the frequency of company personnel movements.
Results obtained from this study show that, whilst there is the possibility that HPAI virus will jump from one cluster of farms to another, movements made by catching teams connected fewer poultry premises in an outbreak situation than slaughterhouses and company personnel. The potential connection of a large number of infected farms, however, highlights the importance of retaining up-to-date data on poultry premises so that control measures can be effectively prioritised in an outbreak situation.
高致病性禽流感（HPAI）病毒对世界范围内的家禽业造成了毁灭性的影响，人们担心英国（GB）家禽业可能爆发 HPAI。HPAI 在禽场之间传播的关键是与人类活动相关的移动性造成的农场之间的联系。从一家大型捕捞公司获得了捕捞队和屠宰场车辆的移动记录，并将这些数据用于该捕捞公司服务的农场和周边（地理）地区之间 HPAI 传播的模拟模型中。通过实时移动性模拟 HPAI 的传播，并增加了公司人员和本地传播的传播。
该模型预测，尽管大规模爆发很少见，但它们可能会发生，并且感染场所之间的距离很远。最终爆发的规模对通过与屠宰场相关的运动传播的概率最敏感，而指数场所之外的传播概率对公司人员运动的频率最敏感。
本研究的结果表明，虽然 HPAI 病毒有可能从一个农场集群跳到另一个农场集群，但在疫情爆发期间，捕捞队的移动性与屠宰场和公司人员相比，连接的家禽养殖场较少。然而，大量受感染农场的潜在联系凸显了保留最新家禽养殖场数据的重要性，以便在疫情爆发时能够有效地确定控制措施的优先次序。
