Allen Pamela M, Edwards John A, Snyder Frank J, Makinson Kevin A, Hamby David M
School of Social and Behavioral Health Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.
Risk Anal. 2014 Aug;34(8):1495-505. doi: 10.1111/risa.12161. Epub 2013 Dec 19.
An experiment examined the ability of five graphical displays to communicate uncertainty information when end users were under cognitive load (i.e., remembering an eight-digit number). The extent to which people could accurately derive information from the graphs and the adequacy of decisions about optimal behaviors based on the graphs were assessed across eight scenarios in which probabilistic outcomes were described. Results indicated that the load manipulation did not have an overall effect on derivation of information from the graphs (i.e., mean and probability estimation) but did suppress the ability to optimize behavioral choices based on the graph. Cognitive load affected people's use of some graphical displays (basic probability distribution function) more than others. Overall, the research suggests that interpreting basic characteristics of uncertainty data is unharmed under conditions of limited cognitive resources, whereas more deliberative processing is negatively affected.
一项实验考察了在终端用户承受认知负荷（即记住一个八位数）时，五种图形显示传达不确定性信息的能力。在描述概率结果的八个场景中，评估了人们从图表中准确获取信息的程度以及基于图表做出的关于最优行为决策的充分性。结果表明，负荷操作对从图表中获取信息（即均值和概率估计）没有总体影响，但确实抑制了基于图表优化行为选择的能力。认知负荷对人们使用某些图形显示（基本概率分布函数）的影响大于其他图形显示。总体而言，该研究表明，在认知资源有限的情况下，解释不确定性数据的基本特征不受影响，而更深入的思考过程则受到负面影响。
