Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, D-14195 Berlin, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jan 18;7:40962. doi: 10.1038/srep40962.
Although actuarial data indicate that risk-taking behavior peaks in adolescence, laboratory evidence for this developmental spike remains scarce. One possible explanation for this incongruity is that in the real world adolescents often have only vague information about the potential consequences of their behavior and the likelihoods of those consequences, whereas in the lab these are often clearly stated. How do adolescents behave under such more realistic conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty? We asked 105 participants aged from 8 to 22 years to make three types of choices: (1) choices between options whose possible outcomes and probabilities were fully described (choices under risk); (2) choices between options whose possible outcomes were described but whose probability information was incomplete (choices under ambiguity), and (3) choices between unknown options whose possible outcomes and probabilities could be explored (choices under uncertainty). Relative to children and adults, two adolescent-specific markers emerged. First, adolescents were more accepting of ambiguity; second, they were also more accepting of uncertainty (as indicated by shorter pre-decisional search). Furthermore, this tolerance of the unknown was associated with motivational, but not cognitive, factors. These findings offer novel insights into the psychology of adolescent risk taking.
尽管精算数据表明冒险行为在青少年时期达到高峰，但实验室对此发展高峰的证据仍然很少。造成这种不一致的一个可能解释是，在现实世界中，青少年通常对自己行为的潜在后果及其后果的可能性只有模糊的了解，而在实验室中，这些通常是明确说明的。在这种更加现实的模糊和不确定条件下，青少年会如何表现？我们要求 105 名年龄在 8 至 22 岁之间的参与者做出三种选择：（1）在充分描述了可能结果和概率的选项之间进行选择（风险下的选择）；（2）在可能结果被描述但概率信息不完整的选项之间进行选择（模糊下的选择），以及（3）在可能结果和概率可以探索的未知选项之间进行选择（不确定下的选择）。与儿童和成年人相比，出现了两个青少年特有的标志。首先，青少年更容易接受模糊性；其次，他们也更容易接受不确定性（表现为决策前搜索时间更短）。此外，这种对未知事物的容忍与动机因素有关，而与认知因素无关。这些发现为青少年冒险行为的心理学提供了新的见解。
