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具有临时链路停用的自适应社交网络中的流行病传播

Epidemics in adaptive social networks with temporary link deactivation.

作者信息

Tunc Ilker, Shkarayev Maxim S, Shaw Leah B

机构信息

Department of Applied Science, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187.

Department of Physics & Astronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA, 50011.

出版信息

J Stat Phys. 2013 Apr 1;151(1-2). doi: 10.1007/s10955-012-0667-7.

Abstract

Disease spread in a society depends on the topology of the network of social contacts. Moreover, individuals may respond to the epidemic by adapting their contacts to reduce the risk of infection, thus changing the network structure and affecting future disease spread. We propose an adaptation mechanism where healthy individuals may choose to temporarily deactivate their contacts with sick individuals, allowing reactivation once both individuals are healthy. We develop a mean-field description of this system and find two distinct regimes: slow network dynamics, where the adaptation mechanism simply reduces the effective number of contacts per individual, and fast network dynamics, where more efficient adaptation reduces the spread of disease by targeting dangerous connections. Analysis of the bifurcation structure is supported by numerical simulations of disease spread on an adaptive network. The system displays a single parameter-dependent stable steady state and non-monotonic dependence of connectivity on link deactivation rate.

摘要

疾病在社会中的传播取决于社会接触网络的拓扑结构。此外,个体可能会通过调整其接触行为来应对疫情,以降低感染风险,从而改变网络结构并影响未来疾病的传播。我们提出一种适应机制,即健康个体可能会选择暂时中断与患病个体的接触,待双方都恢复健康后再恢复接触。我们对该系统进行了平均场描述,发现了两种不同的状态:缓慢的网络动态,其中适应机制只是简单地减少了每个人的有效接触数量;快速的网络动态,其中更有效的适应通过针对危险连接来减少疾病传播。对分叉结构的分析得到了自适应网络上疾病传播数值模拟的支持。该系统显示出一个依赖于单个参数的稳定稳态,以及连接性对链路停用率的非单调依赖性。

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