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信息驱动自适应网络上的疫情动态

Epidemic dynamics on information-driven adaptive networks.

作者信息

Zhan Xiu-Xiu, Liu Chuang, Sun Gui-Quan, Zhang Zi-Ke

机构信息

Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, PR China.

Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 CD, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2018 Mar;108:196-204. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2018.02.010. Epub 2018 Feb 16.

DOI:10.1016/j.chaos.2018.02.010
PMID:32288352
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7126912/
Abstract

Research on the interplay between and has attracted much attention in recent years. In this work, we propose an information-driven adaptive model, where disease and disease information can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic from further spreading. Simulation results and numerical analyses based on the pairwise approach indicate that the information-driven adaptive process can not only slow down the speed of epidemic spreading, but can also diminish the epidemic prevalence at the final state significantly. In addition, the disease spreading and information diffusion pattern on the lattice as well as on a real-world network give visual representations about how the disease is trapped into an isolated field with the information-driven adaptive process. Furthermore, we perform the local bifurcation analysis on four types of dynamical regions, including healthy, a continuous dynamic behavior, bistable and endemic, to understand the evolution of the observed dynamical behaviors. This work may shed some lights on understanding how information affects human activities on responding to epidemic spreading.

摘要

近年来,关于[此处原文缺失部分内容]与[此处原文缺失部分内容]之间相互作用的研究备受关注。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种信息驱动的自适应模型,其中疾病和疾病信息可以同时演变。对于信息驱动的自适应过程,有能力识别疾病的易感(感染)个体将打破其感染(易感)邻居的联系,以防止疫情进一步蔓延。基于成对方法的模拟结果和数值分析表明,信息驱动的自适应过程不仅可以减缓疫情传播速度,还可以显著降低最终状态下的疫情流行程度。此外,晶格以及真实网络上的疾病传播和信息扩散模式直观地展示了在信息驱动的自适应过程中疾病是如何被困在一个孤立区域的。此外,我们对包括健康、连续动态行为、双稳态和地方病在内的四种类型的动态区域进行了局部分岔分析,以了解所观察到的动态行为的演变。这项工作可能有助于理解信息如何影响人类应对疫情传播的活动。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/bdba49f5a5e9/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/a31e7ee0ca67/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/9760ae9b534a/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/fe2eea5edf6e/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/20f72df217cd/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/1a4a13979920/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/734ff6ce9e51/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/a754cd89a601/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/21e93c309ef7/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/0a1b5db920c3/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/bdba49f5a5e9/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/a31e7ee0ca67/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/9760ae9b534a/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/fe2eea5edf6e/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/20f72df217cd/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/1a4a13979920/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/734ff6ce9e51/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/a754cd89a601/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/21e93c309ef7/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/0a1b5db920c3/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7756/7126912/bdba49f5a5e9/gr10_lrg.jpg

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