离婚不易计数：1980-2010 年美国离婚率的上升。
Breaking up is hard to count: the rise of divorce in the United States, 1980-2010.
机构信息
Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA.
出版信息
Demography. 2014 Apr;51(2):587-98. doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0270-9.
This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.
本文批判性地评估了美国离婚趋势的现有数据。我们发现，1990 年后的人口统计数据和离婚回溯调查数据都低估了近期婚姻的不稳定性。这些有缺陷的数据导致一些分析家得出结论，即过去三十年来离婚率一直保持稳定或下降。我们使用来自美国社区调查的新数据，并控制了已婚人口年龄构成的变化，得出的结论是，1990 年至 2008 年期间，年龄标准化离婚率实际上有了大幅上升。在过去的二十年中，35 岁以上人群的离婚率翻了一番。然而，在最年轻的夫妇中，离婚率保持稳定或下降。如果当前的趋势继续下去，未来几十年，总体的年龄标准化离婚率可能会稳定下来，甚至下降。我们认为，自 1980 年以来出生的人的离婚率趋于平稳，可能反映了婚姻选择的日益增加。
Zotero 插件