Braks Marieta, van Ginkel Rijk, Wint William, Sedda Luigi, Sprong Hein
Centre for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Municipal Public Health Service Rotterdam-Rijnmond, P.O. Box 70032, Rotterdam 3000 LP, The Netherlands.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013 Dec 19;11(1):13-29. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110100013.
Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.
公共卫生当局需要为未来的威胁做好准备,并且需要预测气候变化对公共卫生风险可能产生的影响。他们可能会被科学文章中大量的异质信息淹没,并且可能纯粹依赖主要关注全球变暖趋势的舆论文章,而忽略许多其他相关因素。在本文中,我们讨论了研究气候变化及其对公共卫生可能影响的各种科学方法,并讨论了它们在揭示该主题复杂性方面的不同作用和功能。我们的目的不是回顾现有文献或对某些疾病或国家进行预测,而是评估关于气候变化的科学研究文章在基于证据的公共卫生决策中的适用性。在蚊媒疾病的背景下,我们确定了在评估气候变化对人类健康影响的科学研究时需要注意的常见陷阱。我们旨在为刚接触该主题的人提供指导,帮助他们从大量关于气候变化对人类健康影响的科学论文和观点中筛选信息,同时也提醒公共卫生专家注意其多因素和多学科的特点。