Geneva Cancer Registry, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
BMC Public Health. 2014 Feb 1;14:102. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-102.
Projections of the national burden of cancer play a key role in planning cancer control programmes and investments. We present projections of cancer incidence rates and cases for the period up to 2015-2019 in Switzerland.
Projections were based on cancer incidence data estimated from cancer registries for the 1989-2009 periods and demographic projections of the Federal Statistical Office. Age-specific incidence rates were modelled as a function of age, period-birth cohort using NORDPRED.
Up to 2019 the incidence of all cancers combined is expected to decrease slightly for both sexes. Nevertheless, the overall number of cases is predicted to increase. The number of male cancer cases will increase by 30%, from 20005 in 2005-2009 to 25910/year in 2015-2019. For females the number will increase by 20%, from 16913 to 20359/year in 2015-2019. Changes in the population size and structure will be responsible for most of the increase. Among men, the largest increase is observed for melanoma (+54%), thyroid (+45%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (+43%), and prostate (+37%). Prostate cancer will contribute with 8083 cases, colorectal cancer with 2908 and lung cancer with 2791. For women, cases of lung and oral cavity cancers will increase by +48% and +38%, respectively; those of thyroid by +45% and non-Hodgkin lymphoma by +36%. The sites with the most cancer predicted are breast (5870), colorectal and lung (over 2000 each), melanoma (1341) and corpus uteri (1040). The overall annual cancer burden predicted for 2015-19 is of 46269 new cases in Switzerland.
Substantial investments appear to be needed in Switzerland cancer services to meet and fill absolute increased demand driven by aging population.
癌症负担预测在癌症控制规划和投资中起着关键作用。我们展示了截至 2015-2019 年瑞士癌症发病率和病例的预测。
预测基于联邦统计局人口预测的癌症登记处估计的 1989-2009 年癌症发病率数据。使用 NORDPRED 将年龄特异性发病率建模为年龄、时期-出生队列的函数。
到 2019 年，预计两性的所有癌症综合发病率将略有下降。然而，预计病例总数将会增加。男性癌症病例数将增加 30%，从 2005-2009 年的 20005 例增加到 2015-2019 年的 25910 例/年。对于女性，病例数将增加 20%，从 2015-2019 年的 16913 例增加到 20359 例/年。人口规模和结构的变化将是增加的主要原因。在男性中，黑色素瘤（+54%）、甲状腺（+45%）、非霍奇金淋巴瘤（+43%）和前列腺（+37%）的增幅最大。前列腺癌将贡献 8083 例，结直肠癌 2908 例，肺癌 2791 例。对于女性，肺癌和口腔癌的病例将分别增加+48%和+38%；甲状腺癌增加+45%，非霍奇金淋巴瘤增加+36%。预计发病率最高的部位是乳房（5870）、结直肠癌和肺癌（各超过 2000 例）、黑色素瘤（1341）和子宫体（1040）。瑞士 2015-19 年预计每年的癌症负担为 46269 例新发病例。
瑞士癌症服务需要大量投资，以满足和满足人口老龄化带来的绝对增加的需求。
