Jensen Jakob D, Krakow Melinda, John Kevin K, Liu Miao
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2013;13 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):S4. doi: 10.1186/1472-6947-13-S3-S4. Epub 2013 Dec 6.
In 2009, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force released new mammography screening guidelines that sparked a torrent of criticism. The subsequent conflict was significant and pitted the Task Force against other health organizations, advocacy groups, the media, and the public at large. We argue that this controversy was driven by the systematic removal of uncertainty from science communication. To increase comprehension and adherence, health information communicators remove caveats, limitations, and hedging so science appears simple and more certain. This streamlining process is, in many instances, initiated by researchers as they engage in dissemination of their findings, and it is facilitated by public relations professionals, journalists, public health practitioners, and others whose tasks involve using the results from research for specific purposes.
Uncertainty is removed from public communication because many communicators believe that it is difficult for people to process and/or that it is something the audience wants to avoid. Uncertainty management theory posits that people can find meaning and value in uncertainty. We define key terms relevant to uncertainty management, describe research on the processing of uncertainty, identify directions for future research, and offer recommendations for scientists, practitioners, and media professionals confronted with uncertain findings.
Science is routinely simplified as it is prepared for public consumption. In line with the model of information overload, this practice may increase short-term adherence to recommendations at the expense of long-term message consistency and trust in science.
2009年，美国预防服务工作组发布了新的乳房X光检查筛查指南，引发了大量批评。随后的冲突很严重，使工作组与其他卫生组织、倡导团体、媒体以及广大公众对立起来。我们认为，这场争议是由科学传播中系统性地消除不确定性所驱动的。为了提高理解和依从性，健康信息传播者会去除警示、限制和模糊表述，以使科学看起来简单且更具确定性。在许多情况下，这一简化过程是由研究人员在传播其研究结果时发起的，公关专业人员、记者、公共卫生从业者以及其他任务涉及将研究结果用于特定目的的人员也起到了推动作用。
不确定性从公共传播中被消除，是因为许多传播者认为人们难以处理不确定性，和/或认为这是受众想要避免的东西。不确定性管理理论认为，人们可以在不确定性中找到意义和价值。我们定义了与不确定性管理相关的关键术语，描述了关于不确定性处理的研究，确定了未来研究的方向，并为面对不确定研究结果的科学家、从业者和媒体专业人员提供了建议。
科学在准备供公众使用时通常会被简化。与信息过载模型一致，这种做法可能会以牺牲长期信息一致性和对科学的信任为代价，提高短期内对建议的依从性。
