Ali M P, Huang Dingcheng, Nachman G, Ahmed Nur, Begum Mahfuz Ara, Rabbi M F
Entomology Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, Bangladesh.
International Affairs Office, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2014 Mar 11;9(3):e91678. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091678. eCollection 2014.
Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.
近年来，亚洲各地稻飞虱爆发情况加剧，导致水稻产量严重损失。该问题被广泛报道为由杀虫剂引发，而诸如全球变暖等其他可能的潜在驱动因素却被忽视。在此，我们推测全球变暖可能会增加褐飞虱（Nilaparvata lugens Stål.）爆发的风险。我们展示了1998 - 2007年期间气候变量（气温和降水）与褐飞虱数量之间关系的数据。数据显示，在这10年期间，褐飞虱在4月份的数量显著增多，但我们的数据并未表明这是气候改变所致，因为并未发现气温和降水有显著的时间趋势。褐飞虱数量在一年中的不同月份差异很大，这归因于季节性因素，包括合适寄主植物的可获得性。另一方面，月份内的变化归因于不同年份间月气温和降水的波动。通过一般线性模型对这些气象变量对褐飞虱数量的影响进行了统计分析。统计模型表明，气温升高的预期影响并不明确，且与降雨量相互作用。根据该模型，由于气候变化，气候寒冷干燥或炎热潮湿的月份或地区可能会出现更高水平的褐飞虱，而其他气温和降雨组合可能会减少褐飞虱数量。分析表明，全球变暖可能促使了近期亚洲一些水稻种植区褐飞虱的爆发，并且如果气候变化加剧，此类爆发的严重程度可能会增加。我们的研究强调在设计应对稻飞虱爆发的管理策略时需要考虑气候变化。
