Bogner J R, Matuschke A, Heinrich B, Eberle E, Goebel F D
Medizinische Poliklinik, Universität München.
Klin Wochenschr. 1988 Oct 17;66(20):1015-8. doi: 10.1007/BF01733445.
The reliability of laboratory parameters for the prediction of impending manifestation of AIDS in HIV-1 infected patients was investigated. Over a mean observation period of approximately 1 year (5 to 33 months) 56 patients were studied. Eleven patients progressed to AIDS (group 1) and 45 remained free of AIDS-defining disease (group 2). Eight candidate-predictor variables were measured on each patient at the beginning of the observation period: neopterin, hemoglobin, lymphocytes, CD4 counts, CD8 counts, platelets, gammaglobulins, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. In a linear discrimination analysis, a stepwise entry of these parameters into the discriminant function was effected according to which variable added most to the separation into groups 1 and 2. Neopterin proved to be most discriminating with no improvement of separation when adding further variables. Thus, a final allocation rule was computed using neopterin alone. This rule assigns neopterin levels above 21.9 nmol/l to group 1 and levels below to group 2. We conclude, tentatively, that in HIV-infected patients neopterin levels of 22 nmol/l and over may indicate the manifestation of AIDS in the year to come.
对用于预测HIV-1感染患者即将出现艾滋病症状的实验室参数的可靠性进行了研究。在平均约1年（5至33个月）的观察期内，对56名患者进行了研究。11名患者进展为艾滋病（第1组），45名患者未出现艾滋病定义疾病（第2组）。在观察期开始时，对每名患者测量了8个候选预测变量：新蝶呤、血红蛋白、淋巴细胞、CD4计数、CD8计数、血小板、γ球蛋白和红细胞沉降率。在线性判别分析中，根据哪个变量对分成第1组和第2组的区分贡献最大，将这些参数逐步纳入判别函数。结果证明新蝶呤的区分能力最强，添加其他变量时区分效果并无改善。因此，仅使用新蝶呤计算出了最终的分类规则。该规则将新蝶呤水平高于21.9 nmol/l的患者归为第1组，低于该水平的患者归为第2组。我们初步得出结论，在HIV感染患者中，新蝶呤水平达到及超过22 nmol/l可能预示未来一年内会出现艾滋病症状。
