Vu Ha Hai, Okumura Junko, Hashizume Masahiro, Tran Duong Nhu, Yamamoto Taro
National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, 1-Yecxanh, Hai Ba Trung, Ha Noi 112800, Vietnam ; Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, 1-12-4, Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan ; Department of International Health, Graduate School of Biomedical Science, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, 1-Yecxanh, Hai Ba Trung, Ha Noi 112800, Vietnam.
Trop Med Health. 2014 Mar;42(1):25-33. doi: 10.2149/tmh.2013-24. Epub 2013 Dec 18.
Dengue fever is a major health problem in Vietnam, but its incidence differs from province to province. To understand this at the local level, we assessed the effect of four weather components (humidity, rainfall, temperature and sunshine) on the number of dengue cases in nine provinces of Vietnam. Monthly data from 1999 to 2009 were analysed by time-series regression using negative binomial models. A test for heterogeneity was applied to assess the weather-dengue association in the provinces. Those associations were significantly heterogeneous (for temperature, humidity, and sunshine: P < 0.001 heterogeneity test; for rainfall: P = 0.018 heterogeneity test). This confirms that weather components strongly affect dengue transmission at a lag time of 0 to 3 months, with considerable variation in their influence among different areas in Vietnam. This finding may promote the strategic prevention of dengue disease by suggesting specific plans at the local level, rather than a nationally unified approach.
登革热是越南的一个主要健康问题，但其发病率在各省之间存在差异。为了在地方层面了解这一情况，我们评估了四种天气因素（湿度、降雨量、温度和日照）对越南九个省份登革热病例数的影响。使用负二项式模型通过时间序列回归分析了1999年至2009年的月度数据。应用异质性检验来评估各省天气与登革热之间的关联。这些关联存在显著的异质性（温度、湿度和日照：异质性检验P < 0.001；降雨量：异质性检验P = 0.018）。这证实了天气因素在0至3个月的滞后时间内对登革热传播有强烈影响，且其影响在越南不同地区存在相当大的差异。这一发现可能通过在地方层面提出具体计划，而非全国统一方法，来促进登革热疾病的战略预防。
