Asia Pacific Research, Ford Motor Company, Unit 4901, Tower C, Beijing Yintai Center, No. 2 Jianguomenwai Street, Beijing 100022, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2014 Jun 17;48(12):7069-75. doi: 10.1021/es500524e. Epub 2014 Jun 5.
China's oil imports and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown rapidly over the past decade. Addressing energy security and GHG emissions is a national priority. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs) offers a potential solution to both issues. While the reduction in petroleum use and hence the energy security benefits of switching to EVs are obvious, the GHG benefits are less obvious. We examine the current Chinese electric grid and its evolution and discuss the implications for EVs. China's electric grid will be dominated by coal for the next few decades. In 2015 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, EVs will need to use less than 14, 19, and 23 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 183 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. In 2020, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou EVs will need to use less than 13, 18, and 20 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 137 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. EVs currently demonstrated in China use 24-32 kWh/100 km. Electrification will reduce petroleum imports; however, it will be very challenging for EVs to contribute to government targets for GHGs emissions reduction.
在过去的十年中，中国的石油进口和温室气体（GHG）排放迅速增长。解决能源安全和 GHG 排放问题是国家的当务之急。用电动汽车（EV）取代传统汽车是解决这两个问题的潜在方法。虽然改用电动汽车减少了石油使用量，从而提高了能源安全，但 GHG 的好处并不明显。我们研究了当前中国的电网及其发展，并讨论了对电动汽车的影响。在未来几十年，中国的电网将主要依赖煤炭。到 2015 年，在北京、上海和广州，电动汽车每百公里需要使用少于 14、19 和 23 千瓦时的电量，才能与节能车的 183 克二氧化碳/公里的 WTW 排放量相匹配。到 2020 年，在北京、上海和广州，电动汽车每百公里需要使用少于 13、18 和 20 千瓦时的电量，才能与节能车的 137 克二氧化碳/公里的 WTW 排放量相匹配。目前在中国展示的电动汽车每百公里使用 24-32 千瓦时的电量。电气化将减少石油进口；然而，电动汽车要为政府的 GHG 减排目标做出贡献将是非常具有挑战性的。
